{"id":114,"date":"2018-11-05T18:06:55","date_gmt":"2018-11-05T23:06:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.secondordereffects.com\/?p=114"},"modified":"2025-08-26T21:51:21","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T01:51:21","slug":"side-effects-of-disbanding-the-electoral-college","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.secondordereffects.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/05\/side-effects-of-disbanding-the-electoral-college\/","title":{"rendered":"Updated: Side Effects of Disbanding the Electoral College"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Premise of Article:<\/h2>\n

This article has been updated and another way to at least reduce the likelihood of the Electoral College selecting a different candidate vs. popular vote. \u00a0The way would be to increase the size of the House of Representative. \u00a0Please read the new paragraph at the end of this article.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Whenever a Presidential election is won in the Electoral College and the winner doesn’t have the majority of the popular vote there are calls to disband the Electoral College. \u00a0This has happened five times: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, \u00a0and 2016 in US history.\u00a0 In addition, without the Electoral College it is unlikely that Lincoln would have been elected, that would have really delayed the fight over slavery.\u00a0 While on the face, using the popular vote sounds like the way things should be and many wonder why we have the Electoral College. \u00a0This Article discusses the reasons for the Electoral College and potential Second Order Effects of moving to a popular vote for the US President.<\/p>\n

Discussion:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

How does the Electoral College Work?<\/a><\/h3>\n

The number of Electors for a state is the total of the number of Senators and Representatives from that state. \u00a0In addition, there are three Electors from the District of Columbia, a total of 538 Electors. \u00a0The smallest states have three electors and the largest state, California, has 55. \u00a0 In almost all states, the winner of the popular vote in that state get all of the electors for that state. \u00a0 \u00a0There are a couple of states, Maine and Nebraska, that split the electors.<\/p>\n

Historically, Why do we have the Electoral College?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

1.\u00a0 Prevents a Country Wide Recount<\/h4>\n

We haven’t seen this in the Federalist Paper, but it is a second order effect.\u00a0 For those of us that remembers trying to recount Florida, imagine trying to do this across the whole country.\u00a0 \u00a0I don’t think the framers imaged a country with 315M people and the issues that a country wide recount would bring.\u00a0 Given the issues with country wide recount, any system that replaced the\u00a0Electoral College would have to isolate recounts to no more than a few states.<\/p>\n

2. \u00a0To Limit the Damage a Dishonest Election System can do<\/h4>\n

Alexander Hamilton in Federalist No. 68<\/a> laid out what he believed were the key advantages to the Electoral College. \u00a0One of those advantages was that the system limited the damage a corrupt state election system. \u00a0\u00a0Hamilton explained the election was to take place among all the states, so no corruption in any state could taint “the great body of the people” in their selection. \u00a0In addition, the electors come directly from the people and them alone for that purpose only, and for that time only. This avoided a party-run legislature, or a permanent body that could be influenced by foreign interests before each election. \u00a0Again, the principle was to run an election in each state to make it harder for a corrupting agent to significantly effect the outcome.<\/p>\n

This happened in the 1860 election, Lincoln received less than 40% of popular vote but the majority of Electoral College.\u00a0 One of the reasons Lincoln’s vote was so low was that six states didn’t have him on the ballet.\u00a0 The malfisents in this case was the southern states<\/p>\n

3. To Prevent States with Large Populations from Dominating States with Small Populations (Tyranny of the Majority)<\/h4>\n

In the beginning of the negotiations over the Constitution the larger states wanted representation based on population.\u00a0 The smaller states were concerned that they would not have a say in the operation\/legislation of the central government and wanted equal representation for each state.\u00a0 The compromise was the legislature that we have today, a Senate with equal representation for each state and a house with representation based on population. \u00a0In The Federalist Papers<\/i>, James Madison explained his views on the selection of the president and the Constitution. In Federalist No. 39<\/a>, Madison argued the Constitution was designed to be a mixture of state-based and population-based government. \u00a0This same representation should be used to elect the US President in the Electoral College.<\/p>\n

4. To Induce Southern States to Agree to the Constitution<\/h4>\n

At times one will hear that the Electoral College is a vestige of slavery and should be abolished. \u00a0Although one cannot find a reference that says that the Electoral College was connected to Slavery. \u00a0The connection is one of logic, not of statement. \u00a0One of the side effects of setting up the Electoral College over selection by popular vote was that it helped entice the southern states to ratify the Constitution.\u00a0 In several places in the proposed US Constitution, representation in the legislature and in selecting the President were based on the population of each state.\u00a0 This had a number of effects:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The population of a state effected the number of Congressman\u00a0 one has in the House of Representatives;<\/li>\n
  2. The population also effects that number of Electors that a state has in the Electoral College;<\/li>\n
  3. Nearly half the population of the south were slaves, if they were not counted, the southern states would have significantly less representation and would not ratify the Constitution<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    In order to entice the southern slave states to agree to the Constitution, the northern states had to compromise. \u00a0 The northerners wanted the southerners to free their slaves, so they didn’t want to count slaves toward the population of the states.\u00a0 The position was, if the slaves are property then they should not count toward the population of the state.\u00a0 The problem was, if the Northerners didn’t compromise they would loose the south.\u00a0 So, the Northerners compromised; slaves were counted as 3\/5 of a person as part of the enticement to get these states with large slave populations to ratify the Constitution. \u00a0By using the same representation to select the President, instead of a purely popular vote, the southern states would be more comfortable with the constitution and thus it would be easier to ratify. \u00a0 Although, we cannot find any reference that says this was a reason for the Electoral College; the effect is clearly there.<\/p>\n

    How could we remove or reduce the Electoral College effects?<\/h3>\n

    1. Constitutional Amendment<\/h3>\n

    The most obvious way to remove the Electoral College would be a Constitutional Amendment.\u00a0 The following is the process for amending the Constitution:<\/p>\n

    The Congress, whenever two\u00a0thirds<\/a> of both Houses<\/strong> shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments<\/a> to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two\u00a0thirds<\/a> of the several States<\/strong>, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three\u00a0fourths<\/a><\/strong> of the several States, or by Conventions in three\u00a0fourths<\/a><\/strong> thereof, as the one<\/a> or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight<\/a> shall in any Manner affect the first<\/a> and fourth<\/a> Clauses in the Ninth<\/a> Section of the first<\/a> Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage<\/a> in the Senate.<\/p>\n

    For most states this would reduce their power in the selection of the President, not in the smaller states best interest, so it is really unlikely that one could pass an amendment like this.<\/p>\n

    2. The National\u00a0Popular Vote Interstate Compact<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n

    Several states plus the District of Columbia have joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Those jurisdictions joining the compact agree to pledge their electors to the winner of the national popular vote. The Compact will not come into effect until the number of states agreeing to the Compact equals a majority (at least 270) of all electors. As of 2017, 10 states and the District of Columbia have joined the compact; collectively, these jurisdictions control 165 electoral votes, which is 61% of the 270 required for the Compact to take effect.<\/p>\n

    3. Increase the size of the House of Representatives.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    The size of the House was set in 1911 at 435 Representatives, or today about 1 representative for each 708,405 people in a state. \u00a0States (Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming ) with populations less than about 1.1M (based on 2010 census) get one representative.\u00a0 One could make the number of Representatives more dynamic.\u00a0 Instead of dividing 435 into the US population, why not divide the population by a value and determine the number of House Representatives.\u00a0 If the population of the smallest state is used as that value; using the 2010 census we would divide the total US population by 563,626 and you get 545 Representatives. \u00a0The House would increase in size of the house by 110 members. \u00a0By increasing the size of the house, you would also automatically increase the size of the Electoral College by 110. \u00a0With this increase, the likelihood that the Electoral College would select someone that didn’t win the popular vote would decrease; here is why:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Dilutes the effect of the two Senators per state.<\/li>\n
    • Increases the effects of large populations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Additional effects:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • Adjusts the house size with each census.<\/li>\n
      • Increases in the size of the country because of added states or large changes in population, would automatically adjust the size of the house.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        This change only requires the House and Senate to pass a bill and for the President to sign the bill.<\/p>\n

        4. \u00a0The large states could replace winner take all to an apportionment of Electoral College votes.<\/h3>\n

        Today, all but two states are winner take all. \u00a0This means that if a candidate wins a state by a few votes they get all of the Electoral College votes for that state. \u00a0This happened a number of times in 2016, as an example Donald Trump won three states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan) with 46 Electoral College votes by less than 78,000 total votes. \u00a0The popular vote totals in these three states was 13.5 Million, so the margin was tiny. \u00a0Secretary Clinton, won California by 4.3 Million votes out of 13 Million votes. \u00a0Based just on these numbers, it’s easy to see why Secretary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 Million votes and lost the Electoral College.<\/p>\n

        This solution isn’t easy to implement. \u00a0The decision about apportionment vs. winner take all is currently up to each state. \u00a0The large states are unlikely to convert to apportionment because they would lose power. \u00a0The dominate party would see some of “their votes escaping to the other side”. A constitutional amendment to change this would probably be easier because the power would be more evenly spread across the states and the smaller states would be more likely to support the change.<\/p>\n

        So Do we need to replace the Electoral College or fix it? \u00a0Do we have the will to change it, or are the losers of elections with more votes just going to complain.<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Whenever a Presidential election is won in the Electoral College and the winner doesn’t have the majority of the popular vote there are calls to disband the Electoral College. This has happened five times: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 in US history. While on the face, using the popular vote sounds like the way things should be and many wonder why we have the Electoral College. This Article discusses the reasons for the Electoral College and potential Second Order Effects of moving to a popular vote for the US President.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":501,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,13,4],"tags":[82,83,46,78,80,81,79,75,76,45,77,22,72],"class_list":{"0":"post-114","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-executive-branch","8":"category-temp-prospective","9":"category-public-policy","10":"tag-constitution","11":"tag-constitutional-amendment","12":"tag-democrate","13":"tag-dishonest-election-system","14":"tag-electoral-college","15":"tag-federalist-papers","16":"tag-james-madison","17":"tag-majority-rules","18":"tag-recounts","19":"tag-republican","20":"tag-slavery","21":"tag-trump","22":"tag-tyranny-of-the-majority","23":"anons"},"yoast_head":"\nUpdated: Side Effects of Disbanding the Electoral College - Second Order Effects<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.secondordereffects.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/05\/side-effects-of-disbanding-the-electoral-college\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Updated: Side Effects of Disbanding the Electoral College - Second Order Effects\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Whenever a Presidential election is won in the Electoral College and the winner doesn't have the majority of the popular vote there are calls to disband the Electoral College. 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This has happened five times: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 in US history. While on the face, using the popular vote sounds like the way things should be and many wonder why we have the Electoral College. 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